2 min read

President Biden Seems Favored to Win in 2024

My assumption is that we’ve known for over a year that the 2024 election will be a win for President Biden.

The January 6th attack happened just after the 2020 election so it took a few years to understand its impacts on voters. Things became clear after the 2022 midterms. Despite polling that predicted a red wave there was a smaller-than-expected Republican gain in the House of Representatives and an unexpected loss in the Senate.

A growing body of evidence suggests there has been a substantial change in the political preferences of independent voters, whose influence is pivotal in determining election outcomes.

Key factors:

  1. Trump alienated independents: By downplaying the importance of the general election, Trump effectively disregarded their voice, a crucial factor since general elections are independents' primary avenue for influence. The Republican voter base is significantly smaller than that of the Democrats. Trump has not only managed to alienate a percentage of the typically unified Republican supporters but has also turned away a significant number of independents, whose support is vital for his victory. The numbers simply don't add up to a victory, and that's the main reason I anticipate Trump's defeat.
  2. There's been a material shift in voting dynamics: Independents notoriously swing between parties, experiencing "buyer's remorse." Despite deep dissatisfaction with Biden and his economic policies, most independents still voted Democratic in the midterms.
  3. Independents are likely to defy economic interests again: If independents can defy their economic self-interest for an off-year election, they're likely to do so in the pivotal general election.
  4. Mixed issue voters went Democratic: Republicans extreme stance on abortion rights, healthcare and support for January 6th swayed a majority of independents to vote Democratic, reshaping the midterms.

A year is an eternity in politics, and anxieties over the economy, foreign wars, and other issues remain valid. Regardless, I am ending 2023 optimistic about this potential outcome in 2024.