My assumption is that we’ve known for over a year that the 2024 election will be a win for President Biden.
The January 6th attack happened just after the 2020 election so it took a few years to understand its impacts on voters. Things became clear after the 2022 midterms. Despite polling that predicted a red wave there was a smaller-than-expected Republican gain in the House of Representatives and an unexpected loss in the Senate.
A growing body of evidence suggests there has been a substantial change in the political preferences of independent voters, whose influence is pivotal in determining election outcomes.
- Trump alienated independents: By downplaying the importance of the general election, Trump effectively disregarded their voice, a crucial factor since general elections are independents' primary avenue for influence.
- Independent fickleness: Independents notoriously swing between parties, experiencing "buyer's remorse." Despite deep dissatisfaction with Biden and his economic policies, most independents still voted Democratic in the midterms.
- Mixed issue voters went Democratic: Republicans extreme stance on abortion rights, healthcare and support for January 6th swayed a majority of independents to vote Democratic, reshaping the midterms.
- The "one vote, one time" fallacy: If independents can defy their economic self-interest for an off-year election, they're likely to do so in the pivotal general election.
A year is an eternity in politics, and anxieties over the economy, foreign wars, and other issues remain valid. Regardless, I am ending 2023 optimistic about this potential outcome in 2024.