I am excited to get an Apple Vision Pro. And, I am bullish that Apple will sell out of whatever quantity they can produce. I also think supply limits will hold them back in the first year. In fact, in year one Apple might produce fewer than a million units. I did some back of the envelope spreadsheet modeling to better understand the potential startup costs of developing an exclusive Vision Pro app. It's pretty clear that until the device gains widespread adoption the economics of that approach are going to be super challenging.
Developers eyeing the mixed reality space are likely torn between targeting Quest's reported 20 million devices and the uncharted territory of 2024's Vision Pro. If I were betting on this space, I'd opt for the platform that best elevates my ideas and sidestep the logistical maze of multi-platform support. For me, that points straight to Vision Pro. Despite its higher risk and upfront costs, the long-term upside is tantalizing.
Note: In my sheet I did not include the cost of acquiring Vision Pro device(s). 🤣